EFFECTIVE MARKET CAPITALIZATION AND THE NIGERIA STOCK MARKET GROWTH

EFFECTIVE MARKET CAPITALIZATION AND THE NIGERIA STOCK MARKET GROWTH

ABSTRACT  

The capital market is one the compartment of financial system that promote savings and investment in an economy, by providing the means of gathering saving and making them available to borrower.

The aim of this research work is to examine the effective market capitalization and the Nigeria stock market growth between the periods of 1983-2010. The data used for the research work were both secondary and primary data. Secondary data was gathered from Nigeria stock market between on various issues between the periods of 1983-2010 while the primary data was source through questionnaire given to some selected staff of stock exchange market.

The analysis of data collected was base on the Ordinary Least Square the method which was used to test hypothesis one (effective capitalization and Nigeria stock market growth).  Chi- square was used to test hypothesis two (registered small and medium scale is better than unregistered ones base on the questionnaire administered. The empirical results revealed that effective market capitalization enhanced the Nigeria stock market growth and registered small and medium scale enterprises is better off than unregistered one in term in an effective market environment.

1.1   BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

The capital market is one of the compartments financial system that promotes savings and investment in an economy, by providing the means of gathering savings and making them available to borrowers. The other compartment of the financial system is the money market, which is being controlled by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The stock Exchange is one of the key institutions of the capital market, it is a network of individuals, institutions and instruments involved in the efficient channeling or funds from the surplus to the deficit economic units (Alile, 1999).

Stock Exchange is any things at the same time. It is a place where securities such as bonds, stocks and shares of different shades and types are traded openly, and where one can purchase or sell any of such securities relatively easily.

As Alile (1986), aptly puts securities as paper evidence of ownership or entitlement to a claim upon the assets of the issuing organization, which may be a business firm, Government or quasi-government organization. It is sufficient to note that some documentary or paper evidence has no fixed value attached to them but they are tested on the stock exchange market at rates or value, which are subjective and determined by the buyers and sellers of such securities.

Anao (1970) described stock exchange as an economic institution, which sees to the diverse uses in economy. In fact, to an ordinary investor, it is a place where quick money can be made or loss occurred. It presents an idea setting for the smart and daring speculator to make a fortune with relatively little effort, in terms of contributing anything of substance to national output, and the unwary can lose a fortune through false judgment.

The stock exchange plays a central and indispensable role for which it has been variously described as the HALLMARK or HEART of the capital market. This is because, even though, in its definition, the stock exchange is a market for trading on outstanding issues (shares/stocks). Alile (1999) observed that the opportunity which it offers for subsequent trading in existing securities, has made it a decisive factor in the success or otherwise of many corporate issues and extension, the efficiency of capital information in an economy.

Under a free enterprises system, which we operate in Nigeria, the stock exchange is an important art in the economics life of the nation. Through its functions, it enables government and industries to raise long­ term capital to finance developmental projects, for expansion and modernization of industrial/commercial concerns. An efficient stock market mobilizes savings and allocates a greater proportion to those companies with the highest prospective rates of returns after giving allowance for risk. Thus, this study is aimed at evaluating the effect of the Nigerian stock market on the economic growth (Alile 1999).

1.2    STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

The question whether a market is precisely efficient or not, cannot be adequately answered because there are some issues to be addressed. Given the roles the capital market has played during the privatization or public owned enterprises, recent recapitalization or stock exchange market and avenue of long term funds to various government and corporations in Nigeria. To some scholar and researchers have argued that market recapitalization has not really contributed to the growth of the Nigeria stock exchange while other hold contrary view and that registered small and medium scale enterprise on the Nigeria Stock Exchange market are better off than unregistered ones in term of performance in an effective market environment. The objective or this research work is to find out whether the effective market capitalization contributed to the growth of the Nigeria stock exchange between the period of 1983 and 2009.

1.3    RESEARCH QUESTIONS

To achieve a reliable result that can be used to solved the problem under investigation.

i.        Does effective capitalization really contributed to the growth of the Nigeria stock exchange?

ii.       What are the challenges of facing effective capitalization in Nigeria stock market exchange?

iii.      To what extent capitalization of Nigeria stock exchange market contributed in the business performance?

iv.      Does registered small and medium scale enterprises better than unregistered small and medium enterprises?

1.4    OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objectives of this study effective market capitalization and the growth of the Nigeria stock exchange.

The specific objectives are:

1.       To determine the efficient and effective of market capitalization.

ii.       To exam me to what extent market capitalization contributed to Nigeria stock exchange.

iii.      To examine the challenges of Nigeria stock exchange and market capitalization.

iv.      To investigate the performance of registered and unregistered small and medium scale enterprises in and effective market environment.

1.5    RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

The following hypotheses will be formed in the basis of

Hypothesis one

Ho:    There is no significant relationship between effective market capitalization and the growth of the Nigeria stock exchange.

Hi:     There is a significant relationship between effective market capitalization and the growth of the Nigeria stock exchange.

Hypothesis two

Ho:    Registered small and medium scale enterprises on the Nigerian Stock Exchange market are not better off than the unregistered small and medium scale enterprises in terms of performance in an effect market environment.

Hi:     Registered small and medium scale enterprises on the Nigerian Stock Exchange market are better off than the unregistered small and medium scale enterprises in terms or performance in an effect market environment.

1.6    SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

The stock exchange plays a relevant role in the economy by mobilizing funds from those, who have surplus to those, who need these funds for development of project (Ndi Okercke 2000). She observed that enhancement, assistance and development of the stock exchange activities would go a long way to provide overall improvement of the Nigerian economy.

It is hoped therefore that the findings of this study serve as a useful guide to parishioners and to anyone else associated directly or indirectly with the securities market.

Furthermore, the study is deemed significant because it will provide insight into how investors can be attracted and stimulate the growth of the nation's economy.

Finally, it is hoped that findings from this study will contribute to the body of knowledge and stimulate more research interest.

1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The study is about the stock market and how effective it is in setting prices, which reflect the worth of the securities, traded in the market. The relevance of the Nigerian Stock Exchange to Nigeria's economic growth and development will also be viewed. It also covers the performance evaluation criteria; the general issues and involved that can be relevant to any organized security market, both locally and internationally. Also the research work only examined a time series data for a period of twenty eighty years covering 1983 to 2010 for all relevant variables being studied.

1.8     LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

It would be fallacious to claim that the research was constrained free. The research project was limited due to several constraint; chief amongst which are:

i.        Time Factor: The time duration was not enough to collect and collate more  studies on the topic for evaluation so as to give more information on the topic.

ii.     Financial Constraint: The high cost of materials restrained the researcher from testing more models which will further enhanced the result to be derived from the study.

iii. Information: Another limitation faced by the researcher is the sensitivity of certain data required for the purpose of this research. As such, this led to the dearth of relevant statistical information.

1.9    ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

This research work is divided into five chapters.  Chapter one, this is the introductory part which encompasses the introduction ,research problems, research questions, Objectives of the study statement of hypothesis .significance of the study, scope and limitation of the study, organization of the study. Chapter two, this chapter focuses on the literature review on the subject matter .Chapter three, this chapter shall give to the structural composition on the historical background of the petroleum industry in Nigeria. Chapter four examines the data analysis and interpretation.  Chapter five shall give to the summary, recommendation and conclusion.

1.10 DEFINITION OF TERM

For the simplicity of the study to a layman, the following will be defined in the context in which they are used this research project.

Share: Each of the equal parts into which company's capital is divided, entitling its owners to a proportion in this research project.

Value: An estimate of worth.

Worth: The best valuation of share in relation to available information.

Direct evidence: Evidence relating to the market efficiency with focuses on the market's speed and quality of response to specific information items.

Security market line: A line indicating the trade off of risk and return for individual assets.

Technical analysis: The analysis of past security price movement as a method of predicting future price movement.

Intrinsic worth: The best estimate or a security's value in relation to the total set of information available.

Market portfolio: The portfolio of all marketable risky assets in the world in their value-related proportion.

Systematic risk: Risk that cannot be diversified away.

Financial sector: This is a segment of the economy, which comprises of financial intermediaries, financial instruments, and laws regulating the activities of the segment.

Second hand securities: These are instruments traded on the stock market but which had originally been purchased from issuer i.e. companies.

Semi-Strong Efficiency: The market is efficient at the semi-strong level or security price adjust rapidly and without bias to all public information.

EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENT POLICIES ON DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENT POLICIES ON DEVELOPING ECONOMIES (A Case Study of Nigeria) 

ABSTRACT  

The foreign exchange management policy of an economy serves as one of the major factor that contributes to the economic development of such nation. To the federal government, FOREX is a very crucial resource for conducting international transaction; therefore, the government felt once earned should be judiciously managed.

The extent of the effective management of exchange rate on import and export is what the project really examined. There came different era of, changes of foreign exchange management policies ranging from pre SAP period, SAP period and post SAP period with each having different effects on import and export trade. The project tends to answer how these different policies really affected the import and export trade of the Nigerian economy. The procedure for analyzing the collected data was transformed into a linear regression equation using the least square method and other hypothesis were carried out, in order to achieve the objective of the study.

Following the outcome of the analysis and hypothesis tested, it shows that there is a direct relationship between foreign exchange rate policies and net export; it also shows that import and export trade of a developing economy depended greatly on the foreign exchange management policies at any particular period of focus.

However, the conclusion reached was that, at any point, in time, increase in the export as a result of foreign exchange rate management policies has been able to promote economic growth and development, reduce inflation and also stabilize the exchange rate in the economy.

1.1    BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Economies are confronted with one problem or the other, and governments are constantly locked in effort and actions to alleviate them from the economic point of view, there is the gap between the potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the actual, which is referred to as the employment gap, or the GDP gap. This gap has to be reduced to the minimum. In order to achieve this, the government or its agencies take various actions, referred technically as policies.

The natures of economic problems differ from a recession/depression with high levels of unemployment or at the extreme rampaging inflation, currency, depreciation and balance of payments deficits. Since the 1970's, it has been recognized that rather than the existence of a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, a country could be experiencing stagflation- a combination, of stagnating outputs as well as high levels of inflation at the same time (Samuelson and Nordhaus 1989: 204: 206). This situation calls for a combination of policies to address them.

Policies available to any government in managing its economy by tackling the problems identified above exist in. a menu; from monetary and exchange rate through fiscal, trade, commercial, Income among others. Consequently, the government often uses these in combination or singly, depending on the problem at hand and the philosophy of the regime in power. A rightist philosophy is inherently anti-policy activists and when necessary will prefer monetary to fiscal policies. However, he reality of economic malaise confronting an economy. These policies are used in packages.

1.2    DEFINITION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Foreign exchange has been variously, defined by different works of study but all tending towards the same meaning. Foreign exchange is a means of effecting payments for international transactions. It can be acquired by a country through, the export-of goods and services, direct investment in-flow, draw down on external loans, aids and grants and it can be expended to settle international obligations.

Foreign exchange in Nigerian context is defined as any currency other than the Nigerian currency which as at anytime been legal tender in any territory outside Nigerian. Exchange rate policy is. intractably tied up with the management of a country's foreign exchange; it refers to the manipulation of some crucial variables so as to ensure that the country's exchange rate contributes to the attainment of external (or payment viability and general economic prosperity.

Foreign exchange transaction is carried out in the foreign exchange market, this market is a market for the sale or purchase of foreign provides a frame work and opportunity to trade in deal in, off load or produce foreign currencies for effecting or closing international transaction. In case where foreign expenditures is lower than foreign receipts, the surplus is added to reserves, these reserves which are also savings from foreign exchange transactions are held by the authorities to finance shortfalls in foreign exchange receipts and to safeguard the international valve of the domestic currency.

Foreign exchange earrings from international trade transactions and external aids are great important for economic development of less developed counties (LDCs). This is as a result of the fact that resource form the sources can induce increase in factors supplies and promote the development of technical skills and knowledge, all of which should enhance domestic capital formation and economic growth.

Nigeria like other developing nations had chosen to determine her exchange rate through basket of currencies; naira was pegged to the U.S dollar and to the pounds on a bid to ensure that he rate have some bearing with the factors of the balance of payment and domestic economy .

The Nigerian economic history reveals that, Nigerian initially operated affixed exchange rate regime from independence in 1960-1986 before switching to a flexible rate regime. These changes where anchored as a result of the types of disturbance to which economies are exposed the structural characteristics of the economy and the commonality of the risks to which they are subject and the objectives they pursue (Guitan 1994) Agbevlic eta., 1991, frankel 1992.

In this connection, the consideration are that where the problems are external shocks and domestic real stocks, such as imbalance in the goods market as the country experienced in the 1980's then the best policy regimes becomes flexible rate because shocks to domestic demand will lead to change in the rate that will bring about off-setting movement in foreign demand so that domestic output is not severely affected" ceteris paribus (Guitan 4: 19).

For the purpose of analysis, the period under review will include:

-        Exchange rate management policy before SAP.

-        Exchange rate management policy under SAP.

-        Exchange rate management policy after SAP.

-        Review of monetary policy.

1.3    STATEMENT OF PROBLEMS

-        The rationale for various macro-economic policies adopted under the structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) have failed to impact on the Nigerian export and import and therefore affect our foreign reserves.

-        Why the various foreign exchange regimes (policies) have not been able to impact significantly on the macro economic variable as balance of payment, employment, inflation etc.

-        The extent on which the exchange rate can be managed through the effective management of the country export index and external reserves.

-        The extent to which other macro- economic indices depend on the exchange rates

1.4    OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Although, the objectives of exchange rates management policies to achieve macro-economic goals. This study strives to ascertain;

-        To what extent are these objectives been achieved

-        To determine how such objectives as been achieved in the past, current dispensation on and the possible direction that could be followed in the future.

-        To investigate the possible problems and constraint and proffer suggestion to factors that militates against effective management of foreign exchange in Nigeria.

-        To review the monetary policies and various measures used in achieving its objectives.

1.5    RESEARCH QUESTION & HYPOTHESIS

This study is centered on findings out the effect of foreign exchange rate management policies on developing economy, taking Nigeria as a case study. The following question will be considered in order to achieve of the study.

-        Is there a link between exchange rate and monetary policy in Nigeria?

-        To what extent do the instruction of SAP and other economic reforms impact on the foreign exchange management in Nigeria? To review the monetary, policies and various measures used in achieving its objectives.

-        What is the relationship between demand and supply of foreign exchange to various users?

The hypothesis will be testes as follows;  

Ho:    Foreign exchange rate do not contribute to Net Export

Hi:     Foreign exchange rate contributes to Net Export.

1.6    SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

This study is confined on the effectiveness of foreign exchange management policies and conducts of monetary policies in a developing economy. This research work is also limited to Nigerian economy as a case study of a developing economy.

1.7    SIGNIFICANT OF STUDY

The result of this research work would be relevant to academicians, investors, financial institutions as well as the government who may wish to avail themselves of the data and information therein. It will particularly assist student of finance on their study of foreign exchange on economy and will also enlighten the public on how foreign exchange management policies affect their daily business and governance. It will also serve as a dimension for future research and recommend direction for necessary amendments.

1.8    DEFINITION OF UNFAMILIAR TERMS

1)       Direct Investment: This inv investment enterprises of a domestic firm in a foreign country as a subsidiary of the parent business enterprises.

2)      First-Tier Foreign Exchange Market: This is a market for government reservation in transaction, where valves of naira are pegged and remain relatively stronger.

3)      Fiscal policy:  It is use of measure such as taxation, government expenditures budgetary variables in order to achieve desired economic objectives.

4)      Fixed Rate Regime: This is a period where administrative fixing of the value of national currency are employed in relation to major currencies by the monetary authorities.

5)      Floating Rate Regime:  This is the period where national currency was allowed to fluctuate in response to the forces of demand and supply in the foreign exchange market.

6)      Inflation:  It is a persistent increase in price or a fall in the value of money.

7)      Legal Tender:  This is any commodity that is generally accepted as a means of exchange and setting debt.

8)      Over Value Exchange Rate:  This implies artificially high valued currency which makes imports cheaper relative to exports.

9)      Second-Tier Foreign Exchange Market:   This is a market where the determination or value of the naira exchange rate was made to reflect the market force of demand and supply.

10)    Under-valued Exchange Rate:  This implies artificially low valued currency which makes imports costly relative to export.

11)    Bureau de Change:   Is a non bank financial institution licensed by Central Bank of Nigeria to operate in FOREX market in order to improve access to FOREX especially, for small users. Over 240 bureau de change. has been licensed and supervised by Central Bank of Nigerian.

PROPAGANDA IN POLITICS

PROPAGANDA IN POLITICS:  THE USE OF LANGUAGE FOR EFFECT IN ELECTIONEERING CAMPAIGN

INTRODUCTION  

Propaganda is one unique device of politics. This is mostly observed in any electioneering campaign.  Longe and Ofuanu (1996:17) argue that propaganda is solely introduced to damage character. “Propaganda means information, doctrinesopinion etc that are often derogatory, as in political propaganda Films and plays.These are said to be derogatory because they tend to damage or take away credit from something or someone. The sole purpose of propaganda is to misinform and mislead and to consciously indoctrinate.“ The use of propaganda   many times, present the propagandist (that is the person speaking) as a saint and the person the propaganda is aimed at as the devil that is not fit to lead. The focus of this research however is to show how language plays a significant role in political propaganda as it relates to electioneering campaign. This work shall focus more on the 2007 general electioneering campaign in Nigeria. Linguistics device propagandist use to achieve their aim in the fare mentioned electioneering campaign shall be brought to the fore.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

It has been observed that previous researches addressed the role language plays in persuading and educating the electorate during electioneering campaign .This is also known as rhetoric’s. The researcher observed that much has not been done on the effects of language on the contestants and the electorate with regard to campaign of calumny (propaganda) is yet to be fully studied, with this in mind, this study shall show that language has a great effect on both the electorate and contestants as observed during the last 2007 general election in Nigeria.

AIM OF THE STUDY

Where ever politics evolves, propaganda is a major tool in deciding the vote. Propaganda itself is not possible without language. This work is therefore aimed at showing through vivid analysis that propaganda in politics makes use of linguistics device in deciding where the podium of influence should swing towards. This work will also show the forms and features of propaganda as it relates to language use.

COLLECTION OF DATA

This work sourced for data from both primary and secondary sources. Also information relating to the topic under study was also sourced for from the internet. As regards primary source, we got some texts on language and politics and we believe they shall be of great help in making this work a success. Secondary source involved information concerning political speeches of 2007 general election in Nigeria.

SCOPE OF STUDY

This work will dwell in language use and speech act. The study will focus on the language use from the communication point of view and the effect it intend to have on the hearer, employing these features: word coinage, vagueness, repetition, abusive expression, attack on party name and slogan etc. being a persuasive styles adopted by the politicians in political campaign as available in data collected.1.5     LIMITATION OF STUDY The greatest limitation in this study is finance. Finance needed in carrying out a standard research is not always easy for any student including researcher .One actually need a lot of fund to source for credible information and data as regarding the use of propaganda. Time was also a big constrain as the researcher was made to work under a given period of time which also affected the work.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The speech act theory introduced by British language philosopher known as J. L Austin (1962) provide the analytical frame work (i.e. theoretical) upon which the work is based .The theory analyses the role that utterance play in relation to the behaviour or attitude of the speaker and the hearer in interpersonal communication. It is communication ability defined with the respect to the intention of the speaker while talking and the effect of his speech on the listener. Every utterance has its own communicative purpose depending on the specific speech context. Language use, according to Traugott and Pratt (480:226) …is governed by a wide range of contextual factors, including social and physical circumstances, identities attitudes, abilities and beliefs of participants and relations holding between participants. Austin’s approach begins with an analysis of the different things people do with words through the ages, language philosophers have been impressed with language which has been used to represent how the world is, to say what is or is not the case the notion of truth has been central to the philosophy of language. He points out the many other things people do with words they do not just represent how things are; they ask questions, give commands, make suggestion give advice, tell jokes, make promises, even insult, persuade and intimidate.  This led Austin to draw a threefold distinct kind of speech act:

Locutionary Act – first, words have a distinct conventional meaning. The expression “The cat sat on the mat” refers to a cat, a mat and relation between them, one sitting upon the other. This ordinary sense of meaning constitutes the “what is said” of any particular speech act. Illucutionary Act.- Secondly has it that by saying certain words one actually commits an act.  For example, in saying “I do” at a wedding, one makes a promise in saying ‘will you?’ one asks a question and in saying “you will” one gives order. Perlocutionary Act. Finally, points out that by saying something, one performs an action by saying I do”.  One weds, by saying something like I will give you a better deal than the competitor”, may cause a buyer to be persuaded and so on.

Connecting the three speech – Act However, these different functions of word are not necessarily exclusive. Austin is aware that many utterances can involve all the three kinds of acts. For instance, saying ‘it’s hot’ is an illocutionary act describing how one feels. It might also be taken in the context of a room with a close window as an illocutionary act – a request to open the window finally as the hearer responds by opening window, the single utterance has also perform a perlocutionary act. The essence of speech act theory is that utterances are acts in themselves capable of producing enormous and far-reaching result or consequences. Utterances can affect our whole lives, they can deny us to carry out an instruction, change an already existing state of affairs etc. The work propaganda in politics: the use of language for effect in electioneering campaign will be based on how language of calumny is used by politician to influence the state of the mind of the hearer and to tarnish the image of their opponent. This is achieved employing speeches in their campaigns; these campaign speeches will serve as the data for this work. This is the analytical framework upon which this work is built.

DEFINITION OF TERM

Since the work involves other discipline other than linguistics, terminologies that will be mentioned often in this work will be defined, such as:1.6.1  Language Language is any system structure of sign and meaning for the communication of experience MKC Uwajeh (2002)1.6.2  Politics Politics has no universal definition but has been defined by different scholars from their respective points of view. According to F.A.C Aramere (2003:3), “politics is the struggle for political power and the use of that power to the acquisition   of other values. Power is therefore the central focus of politics. 1.6.3  Election This is  act of choosing a representative or the holder of a particular office usually by ballot. Electorate refers to the whole body of persons, who have the right to vote in a country or area. Electioneering is the corresponding adjective of the noun election. It refers to the activities of making speeches and visiting people to try to persuade them to vote for a particular politician or a political party The People in a country or in a country or an area, who have the right to vote, 1.6.4  Propaganda According to Oyeneye (1997:41) professor Calvin Coolidge (1964) as saying that propaganda seeks to present part of the facts, to distort their relations , and to force conclusion which could not be drawn from a complete and candid survey of all the facts”

PROPAGANDA IN POLITICS:  THE USE OF LANGUAGE FOR EFFECT IN ELECTIONEERING CAMPAIGN

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL DEFICIT AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA

CHAPTER ONE 

The growth and development of the Nigerian economy has not been stable over the years as a result, the country’s economy has witnessed so many shocks and disturbances both internally and externally over the decades. Internally, the unstable investment and consumption patterns as well as the improper implementation of public policies, changes in future expectations and the accelerator are some of the factors responsible for it (Siyan and Adebayo, 2009). Similarly, the external factors identified are wars, revolutions, population growth rates and migration, technological transfer and changes as well as the openness of the country’s economy.

The cyclical fluctuations in the country’s economic activities has led to the periodical increase in the country’s unemployment and inflation rates as well as the external sector disequilibria(Okunrounmu, 2003). In other words, fiscal policy is a major economic stabilisation weapon that involves measure taken to regulate and control the volume, cost and availability as well as direction of money in an economy to achieve some specified macroeconomic policy objective and to counteract undesirable trends in the Nigerian economy (Okunrounmu, 2003). Therefore, they cannot be left to the market forces of demand and supply as well as other instruments of stabilization such as monetary and exchange rate policies among others, are used to counteract are problems identified (Odedokun, 2008). This may include either an increase or a decrease in taxes as well as government expenditures which constitute thebedrock of fiscal policy but in reality, government policy requires a mixture of both fiscal and International Review of Social Sciences and Humanities, monetary policy instruments to stabilize an economy because none of these single instruments can cure all the problems in an economy (Ndiyo and Udah, 2003).

The Nigeria economy started experiencing recession form early 1980s that leads to a depression in the mid 1980s. This depression continued until early 1990s without recovering from it. As such, the government continually initiated policy measures that would tackle and overcome the dwindling economy. Drawing the experience of the great depression, government policy measure to curb the depression was in the form of increase government spending (Nagayasu, 2003). According to Okunroumu, (2003), the management of the Nigerian economy in order to achieve macroeconomic stability has been unproductive and negative hence one cannot say the Nigeria economy is performing. This is evidence in the adverse inflationary trend, government fiscal policies, undulating foreign exchange rates, the fall and rise of gross domestic product, unfavourable balance of payments as well as increasing unemployment rates are all symptoms of growing macroeconomic instability. As such, the Nigeria economy is unable to function well in an environment where there is low capacity utilization attributed to shortage in foreign exchange as well as the volatile and unpredictable government policies in Nigeria (Anyanwu, 2007).

In any economic system, there is always the need for government to undertake very useful measures aimed at shaping various developmental aspirations. One of such measures is fiscal/budget deficit. The relationship between fiscal deficits and macroeconomic variables (such as growth, interest rates, trade deficit, exchange rate, among others) represents one of the most widely debated topics among economists and policy makers in both developed and developing countries (Obinna, 2000). This relationship can either be negative, positive or a no positive or negative relationship. The differences on the nature of the relationship between budget deficits and these macroeconomic variables as found in economic literatures according to Egwaikhide (2002), could be explained by the methodology the country and the nature of the data used by the different researchers.

There is a sharp divergence of views on how fiscal deficit affects the economy. The conventional view, embodied in the Washington Consensus and held by the international financial institutions (IFIs), is that fiscal deficit, particularly in the context of developing countries, represents the most important policy variable affecting the rest of the economy.

According to this view, the relationship between fiscal deficit and other macroeconomic variables is set to depend on how the deficit is financed. It stipulates that money creation leads to inflation, government borrowing crowds out private investment and external debt leads to balance of payments crises (Easterly and Schmidt, 1993).

On the contrary, many economists question the validity of the view that budgets should always be balanced. James Tobin is of the view that what is really important is appropriate fiscal policy which may or may not balance the budget. He argues that there are built-in stabilizers in the fiscal system and that deficit performs a useful function in absorbing savings that would otherwise be wasted in unemployment, excess capacity or lower output. This view is shared by Saleh (2003), who maintains that even in the long- run equilibrium; zero is not a uniquely interesting figure for the budget deficit. Fiscal deficit could be seeing from many angles. It is the gap between the government’s total spending and the sum of its revenue receipts and non-debts capital receipts, (Easterly and Rebelo, 2003).It represents the total amount of borrowed funds required by the government to completely meet its expenditure. It could also be defined as the excess of total expenditure including loans net of payments over revenue receipts and non-debt capital receipts. It also indicates the total borrowing of the government, and the increment to its outstanding debt.

Despite the fact that realized revenues are often above budgeted estimates, extra budgetary expenditures have been rising so fast and result in fiscal deficit, Anyanwu (2007), and Robini(2001), shows that budget deficit in developing countries are heavily influenced by the degree of political instability as well as public finance considerations with no apparent direct effect of elections. Investigations show that Nigeria was caught in the deficit trap since early 1980s when the world oil market collapsed. Since then, there have been frantic efforts to exit the deficit trap but all to no avail instead, the mode of financing the deficit has been the major factor including rapid monetary growth, exchange rate depreciation and rising inflation.

1.2.         Statement of Problem

In spite of government efforts at devising policy measures aimed at overcoming fiscal deficit, fiscal deficit has persisted in the Nation’s economy which its adverse effect is being perceived on key macro-economic variable. In less developed nations, borrowing from international financial institutions and Central Bank to finance sizeable portion of the deficits contribute to liquidity and inflation (Egwaikhide, 2002).

This is because rather than spending the borrowed money on capital expenditure such as building roads and dams improving agricultural sector, etc which may improve standard of living of the people, and hence, their productivity which in turn, may improve the country’s economic growth, this borrowed money is spent on pension and transfer payment. This has led to situations where expenditure could not be curtailed, resources could not be raised for fear of adverse effects, and greater deficits fuelled further inflation.

The impact of fiscal deficit on the development of the Nigerian Economy depends on the financing techniques(Inflation tax or bond financed deficit). Money creation to finance deficit often leads to inflation while domestic borrowing inevitably leads to a credit squeeze through higher interest rates or through credit allocation (Easterly and Robello 2004, Sowa, 2004). It is pertinent to note that Nigeria has relied very much on inflation tax (about 70%) and the non-banking holding about15-20% in government bond, (Diamond and Ogundare, 2002). The exact quantitative impact of such mix of deficit financing can better be X-rayed by the impulse response function. Some researcher believe that fiscal deficit has a positive relationship (without put growth while others state that deficits are negatively with output growth accumulation and hence negatively with output growth (Egwaikhide 2005, Soludo 2008).

It is therefore a core research issue and this is the pivot of this study. To critically look at the impact of fiscal deficit on the development of the Nigeria Economy in Nigeria. Currently, there is no consensus on the matter. The level of economic development and the fiscal structure of Nigeria compound this problem. Besides, previous studies have advanced in characterising the implications of alternative sources and composition of deficits spending without investigating whether fiscal deficit lead to economic growth.

1.3.         Objectives of the Study

The broad objective of the study is to determine the relationship between fiscal deficit and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the study will:

i. Determine the impact of fiscal deficits on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria.

ii. Examine whether fiscal deficit leads to economic development in Nigeria.

iii. Examine the nature of relationship between fiscal deficits and macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria.

1.4.         Research Hypotheses

H0: There is significant relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation, government taxes in Nigeria

H0: There is no significant relationship between government deficit and government expenditure in Nigeria

H0: There is significant relationship between Fiscal deficits and unemployment, economic growth in Nigeria

1.5.         Scope of the Study

The study is on “fiscal deficit and development of Nigeria economy”. Hence, it entails the use of macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic product (GDP) a proxy for economic growth, government expenditure (GEXP), Inflation rate (INF), government deficit (GDEF),government taxes (GTAX), and unemployment (UNEMP) and also the long-run relationship between fiscal deficit and macro-economic variables like exchange rate, interest rate. The data on the above variables will cover the period of 1984-2014. The choice of this period is based on data availability.

1.6 Organization of the Study

This study is divided into five sections. The first section is the introduction. In section two, relevant theoretical and empirical literatures are reviewed.

Section three is the methodology. The model used is stated. The sources of the data and their description, the estimation procedure are all stated. Section four shows the presentation, analysis and interpretation of results. The fifth section is the concluding part of the work, the summary of findings and policy recommendations.